Even as more and more of their industry is dictated by viral social media trends instead of big companies, there’s still a certain prestige and influence for rising rappers that comes with a spot on the annual XXL Freshman List. Every year, the rap publication releases a list of rappers (usually around 10) whom it sees as the next major players in the industry. With magazines being a relic in the current media landscape, however, the list’s most exciting feature is the freestyles, where each rapper provides a pre-written verse, and the cyphers, where these disparate rappers are grouped together in entertaining combinations to each spit over a beat. Many of these cyphers, like the legendary performance in 2016 that saw Denzel Curry, Kodak Black, 21 Savage and Lil Uzi Vert grouped together, provide chemistry between artists and charismatic moments that you can’t get anywhere besides XXL, in an age where these kinds of old-school showcases have become less common.
Besides the performances themselves, it’s always fun to predict who will make the list, and look back at past lists to see how effective XXL was at spotlighting the next generation of rappers. Since last year’s 2019 class, for example, already-thriving freshmen like Roddy Ricch, DaBaby and Megan Thee Stallion have skyrocketed to become some of the most recognizable artists in music, while others like Comethazine and YK Osiris have faded into relative obscurity. The list of 98 artists eligible for the 2020 10th-spot fan vote has been released – generally, all members, including the 9 picked by XXL themselves, are included in this list, so we now have a definite list of potential freshmen for this year.
This article will discuss two questions. First, I’ll lay out which ten rappers on the list I think would make for the best collection of talent, industry potential and unique artistic style. Then, based on the decision-making in past lists, I’ll predict who XXL will choose for the real thing, and discuss the chances of my preferred picks to make the list.
But first, the elephant in the room: Brooklyn rapper Pop Smoke, who was murdered at 20 this past February, was a shoo-in for this kind of list. His gravelly voice and adoption of UK drill-style production gave him both menacing charisma and a unique style, helping bring the Brooklyn drill movement to a wider audience with breakout hits like “Welcome to the Party” and “Dior” and, crucially, making him exactly the kind of rising star XXL seeks in a Freshman. There’s no telling where Pop Smoke would have gone in the industry, had his life not been tragically cut short at his peak of relevancy. While artists on the candidate list like 22Gz would still independently represent the sounds of Brooklyn drill in Pop Smoke’s absence, his death means that the freestyles and cyphers will lack what might have been their most unique voice. It’s likely that he’ll receive an honorary 11th spot on the 2020 list, in much the same way Chief Keef did when he was incarcerated during the 2013 list’s photoshoot.
With that caveat out of the way, which ten rappers would make for the most diverse and talented 2020 XXL Freshman List?
Sada Baby
I’ve already written at length about the overlooked talent of Detroit rapper Sada Baby, and he’s the artist I’d most like to see make this list. His limitless energy and off-the-wall sense of humor would make him an entertaining presence in the cypher, and Detroit rappers like him need more attention from the larger industry in general. Watching him furiously ad-lib other big rappers’ performances would make for a highlight in any class.
Will Sada Baby make the list? NOT LIKELY
Unfortunately, despite boasting a large social media audience and pulling decent numbers, especially on YouTube, Sada simply hasn’t reached the popularity threshold that a rapper of his nature usually needs to get on XXL, and he doesn’t have the kind of quirks that have gotten smaller rappers, like Tierra Whack, on the list in the past. It could still happen – the size of his devoted fanbase is underestimated and growing – but with only so many spots on the list, he’s likely to get out-competed in the nomination by bigger artists.
Polo G
Among the legions of soulful, introspective, melodic street-rap crooners that have popped up everywhere lately, Chicago’s Polo G is one of my favorites, largely due to a stronger pen game that makes his emotional work hit that much harder. His 2019 album Die a Legend is one of the most consistent and poignant projects in the style. A 2020 XXL Freshman spot for Polo might turn out a lot like Roddy Ricch’s last year, shifting into melodic flows and impressing in the cypher.
Will Polo G make the list? LIKELY
Since his smash single “Pop Out”, Polo G has consistently been a major artist in terms of sales, and his wise voice would add a lot to a Freshman class that promises to have few rappers writing at his level. Despite this, I think he might be snubbed for the spot in favor of frequent collaborator Lil Tjay, who is co-credited on “Pop Out” andmarginally more popular.
Flo Milli
For a few years now, every XXL roster has included at least one woman; my dream list for 2020 is no different. One listen to Flo Milli’s raucous “Beef FloMix” shows off an attitude-driven charisma and lighthearted confidence that I think would nicely contrast with the rest of the menacing freshmen. More importantly, she just radiates star power to me, and I can see her leveraging a spot into a very entertaining career.
Will Flo Milli make the list? LIKELY
While Flo Milli’s raw streaming numbers aren’t too impressive compared to other nominees, and she has only a few songs to her name, she has one asset: she’s a better candidate than any of the other potential female freshmen. Few of the women among the 98 have songs that have become as popular as “Beef FloMix” or TikTok song “In the Party”, and, in my eyes, none of the other candidates have the obvious star potential that she does. Since XXL always picks at least one woman, she seems like a lock for 2020.
Duke Deuce
Memphis rapper and Quality Control signee Duke Deuce is famous for one thing: “Crunk Ain’t Dead”, the blood-pumping anthem that somehow revived the early-2000s genre of crunk on pure energy alone. His February mixtape Memphis Massacre 2 proved that this wasn’t just a one-off banger: besides offering a remix of his hit single featuring three crunk/Memphis legends, Duke Deuce is a surprisingly capable rapper over a full project, offering sticky, impressive flows over a variety of strains of revivalist production. He’s got his own energetic sound, which makes him clearly deserving of a placing in the 2020 XXL list.
Will Duke Deuce make the list? NOT LIKELY
As with a few artists on this list, Duke Deuce simply isn’t popular enough yet for me to predict that he’ll secure a spot on the roster; “Crunk Ain’t Dead” made a splash, but not one big enough to send him to the upper echelon in the industry that indicates a future on the list.
Baby Keem
He’s an enigma; Baby Keem seemed to come out of nowhere with last year’s DIE FOR MY BITCH, perhaps due to allegedly being Kendrick Lamar’s cousin. (He had production credits on the Black Panther soundtrack and other TDE albums that only really seem explainable as industry magic.) But the album itself shows off a unique rapper who seems destined to only get bigger with time. Keem’s got a great ear for the same sort of quirky, punchy trap beats that have appeared on recent TDE projects, and his bashful confidence makes for interesting earworms, like the sleeper hit “ORANGE SODA”. Whether he came up organically or not, Baby Keem is a fully-formed artist and an interesting personality who seems perfect for XXL.
Will Baby Keem make the list? YES
As I’ve watched his star rise over the past year or so, everything about Baby Keem’s career has screamed “he’ill be on XXL eventually”. He’s got deep industry connections, he gets high placements on key metrics like curated Spotify playlists, and he’s become very popular off the DIE FOR MY BITCH singles. I’d bet on his inclusion.
REASON
Speaking of TDE, here’s the most recent rapper signed to the legendary West Coast label: REASON, the artist whom I’d consider the best fit for the “conscious” spot on this year’s list. He’s not reinventing the wheel, but he’s a talented, thoughtful lyricist in an era where those are few and far between at his level – just listen to a song like “Better Dayz” for evidence. REASON would add some variety to my hypothetical list.
Will REASON make the list? POSSIBLY
There are only really two effective choices for the “old-school lyricist” type among the 98 nominees. As a TDE signee, REASON has a good shot, but there’s another candidate, D Smoke, who I think makes much more sense on XXL’s end.
NLE Choppa
Here’s the most obvious standout among the list, Memphis’ NLE Choppa – someone incredibly popular and likeable who should have made last year’s list, but would be right at home on this one. His brawny, punchline-heavy bangers and goofy music videos have made him iconic among younger rap fans, and for good reason. I’ve spoken a lot about other rappers’ charisma, but NLE Choppa seems to have an unlimited supply of it; he could drawl just about anything in his aggressive cadences and it’d be a hit.
Will NLE Choppa make the list? YES
It’s a no-brainer – he’s one of the most popular artists among the nominees, and is already essentially a star in his own right. There’s no doubt XXL is paying him well to even consider being on the roster this late into his come-up.
Teejayx6
And now we come to the most bizzare potential freshman – Detroit’s Teejayx6, whose rapping I can’t do justice in text form. He’s the figurehead for the recent “scam rap” trend, punching in hilarious, comically offbeat stories about Bitcoin adventures and committing credit card fraud, rapping in a way that only he can. There’s no rap songs in the past few years I’ve laughed at harder than his “Dynamic Duo” collaborations with fellow Detroiter Kasher Quon, where they try to out-maneuver each other by spitting the most absurd punchlines possible, spilling so much over the beat that they interrupt each other’s insults. He’s his own character, and he’d be funny as hell in a cypher, or, god forbid, a freestyle where he had to maintain any sense of rhythm.
Will Teejayx6 make the list? LIKELY
Here’s a bold prediction: Teejayx6 will make the 2020 XXL Freshman list, despite being far less popular than my other speculated choices. That’s for the same reason I picked him for my list – he’s a walking meme, and will bring a lot of memorable moments to a list that desperately needs them to stay relevant in the current era. The 2020 XXL list needs engaged discussion on social media, and Teejayx6 being his usual, darkly ridiculous self will help them get it.
ShooterGang Kony
To most readers, ShooterGang Kony will seem like an unknown name; in his native Sacramento, however, he’s something of a local star. Songs like “Charlie” make clear why: he’s got dexterous NorCal flows, carefree swagger, and especially clever writing that makes him a great all-around pick for a list like this. Kony is one of the rappers I always recommend to people looking for new artists to get into, because mixtapes like Second Hand Smoke and Red Paint Reverend are chock-full of entertaining talent that often flies under the radar on the national stage.
Will ShooterGang Kony make the list? NO
As much as I enjoy ShooterGang Kony’s music from here in North Carolina, he simply isn’t popular enough outside of his region to garner the attention XXL needs for a Freshman spot. Hopefully he’ll be there in a year’s time for 2021.
Lil Keed
Of all of the ‘Young Thug clones’ to emerge from Atlanta in recent years (Lil Baby, Gunna, etc.), I enjoy Lil Keed’s music the most. Maybe it’s because he can sound indistinguishable from Thugger himself, who’s one of my favorite rappers; mostly, though, it’s because he, in his whiny voice, writes better, more consistent songs than the rest of the artists in his lane – take the incredibly catchy “Nameless”, for example. Keed is one of the few artists still breathing some life into the Atlanta trap scene as other cities like Detroit and Memphis steal its thunder, and he’d be a solid regional choice for XXL.
Will Lil Keed make the list? NOT LIKELY
For some reason, Lil Keed’s “Snake” has blown up on TikTok in just the past few months, despite coming out on a mixtape that’s almost a year old. A few of his other songs have fared similarly – he has the credentials for a placement on the roster this year. Still, there are plenty of candidates among the 98 whose claim to fame is a TikTok hit or two, and I think XXL would prefer to give a spot to someone who’s more of a magnetic personality than Keed is.
To recap, my ideal XXL list this year consists of:
- Sada Baby
- Polo G
- Flo Milli
- Duke Deuce
- Baby Keem
- REASON
- NLE Choppa
- Teejayx6
- ShooterGang Kony
- Lil Keed
But who’s actually going to make the list? As discussed earlier, I think Flo Milli, Baby Keem, NLE Choppa and Teejayx6 are very likely candidates for the 2020 roster, with all of the important qualities in an XXL Freshman and, crucially, no one similar to them competing for their hypothetical spots. There are still six spots to go, which I predict will be filled by:
Lil Tecca
As the XXL nominee with the highest-charting Billboard single (“Ransom”, peaking at #4 last year), Lil Tecca is a lock for Freshman, likely to bring the list the publicity it so desperately needs. His nasally Auto-tuned pop rap songs haven’t substantially charted outside of “Ransom”, and no one would call him versatile. But as of now, he’s a young, charismatic rapper, is popular on social media, and has a wildly-successful hit song under his belt – I’m almost surprised he’s not too big for the list. Tecca is a guaranteed Freshman.
Polo G or Lil Tjay
Either of the two rappers who broke out with the 2019 single “Pop Out” would make sense for the freshman list: both Chicago’s Polo G and New York’s Lil Tjay provide raw, introspective street storytelling with emotional Auto-crooned melodies, filling a niche that’s become popular in a number of local scenes across the U.S.. Polo is the better artist by a good margin, offering the stronger lyricism and songwriting that led to surprising critical acclaim for his most recent album, Die a Legend; Tjay is slightly more popular, however, both on streaming platforms and especially on TikTok, where many rising stars’ careers now pick up speed. Since Lil Tecca is already a lock for the list, I think XXL will be reluctant to add another New York crooner with a similar vocal style in Lil Tjay – Polo G seems more likely, although either might take this spot.
D Smoke
I mentioned REASON earlier as a prime candidate for the token “conscious rapper/lyricist” on the 2020 XXL list, but Inglewood, CA’s D Smoke has an origin story and audience that makes even more sense for a Freshman. As the winner of Netflix’s popular 2019 Rhythm + Flow competition/TV series, where aspiring rappers were pitted against each other until just one – D Smoke – was left to win a cash prize at the end and be crowned the show’s breakout star, he’s got a huge social media audience eager to see his next move, and a come-up narrative that would be neatly capped off by a nod from the biggest kingmaker left in the industry. He fits the conscious niche to a tee; D Smoke seems like a no-brainer for the execs at XXL to include if they’re looking for trendy artists and still want an out-and-out lyricist in the class.
Don Toliver
It came like a bolt of lightning – Don Toliver’s 2018 feature on Travis Scott’s “CANT SAY”, a breathtaking soulful-robot stunner of a verse that immediately made everyone Google his name. Shortly after, he was signed to Travis’ label, and once “No Idea” was catapulted by TikTok onto the charts, he quickly became an in-demand artist. He’s got a psychedelic, melodic sing-rap style akin to artists like Travis and 03 Greedo, which, when paired with woozy production, has made for some infectious hits. He’s at the perfect level for an XXL spot: very popular, but not so much that the moment has passed to add him to the roster.
Rod Wave
Kevin Gates affiliate Rod Wave doesn’t really rap much, but that won’t stop him from impressing on the 2020 XXL list: his emotional, alienated songs, intoned in a resonant croon that tugs at your heartstrings, mark him as a singular vocalist. There are few artists as soul-stirring or nakedly emotional as Rod Wave among his contemporaries, which has made him very popular and turned confessional songs like “Heart on Ice” into hits and marketable memes.
Jack Harlow
The most recent artist on this list to conclusively ‘blow up’, Jack Harlow has grown to massive streaming numbers off the strength of singles like “WHAT’S POPPIN”, well-put-together numbers that showcase his casually confident delivery. While not the most unique artist to make a likely 2020 XXL Freshman, he’s charismatic, and has become so popular that I’d be surprised if he doesn’t find a spot somewhere.
All together, my predicted 2020 XXL Freshman Class consists of:
- Lil Tecca
- Flo Milli
- Baby Keem
- NLE Choppa
- Teejayx6
- Polo G
- D Smoke
- Don Toliver
- Rod Wave
- Jack Harlow
When the photoshoot, interviews, freestyles and cyphers are released this summer, it’ll determine how accurate these predictions were – and set the stage for the next crop of potential superstars in the rap industry.
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